{"issued":"2026-10-29","run_timestamp":"2026-10-29T18:07:17","model_version":"0.2","data_week":"2026-10-19","school_data_week":"2026-10-05","school_target_week":"2026-10-19","incidents":[["flu_dm","London","2026-08-17","zero/placeholder value - held"],["flu_dm","London","2026-08-24","zero/placeholder value - held"],["flu_dm","London","2026-09-28","zero/placeholder value - held"],["flu_dm","London","2026-10-05","zero/placeholder value - held"],["rsv_dm","London","2026-08-17","zero/placeholder value - held"],["rsv_dm","London","2026-08-24","zero/placeholder value - held"],["flu_adm","East of England","2026-08-31","zero/placeholder value - held"],["flu_adm","East of England","2026-10-12","sudden drop >50% after rising weeks - held as provisional"],["flu_adm","South West","2026-09-07","missing week (gap) - not read as a fall"],["flu_adm","Yorkshire and Humber","2026-08-10","missing week (gap) - not read as a fall"],["noro","England","2026-10-19","latest week provisional (late lab reports) - excluded"]],"track":null,"series":{"flu_p1":{"East Midlands":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",8.563,4.443,13.846,13.1],[2,"2026-11-02",8.85,4.045,14.137,14.3],[3,"2026-11-09",9.041,3.729,15.04,13.0],[4,"2026-11-16",11.472,4.384,19.836,12.5],[5,"2026-11-23",11.484,4.539,20.052,14.7],[6,"2026-11-30",11.339,4.527,19.777,19.6],[7,"2026-12-07",11.061,4.253,20.323,24.8],[8,"2026-12-14",10.674,3.965,18.388,24.65]],"latest":6.8,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 16 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-16"},"East of England":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",7.278,3.742,11.812,3.8],[2,"2026-11-02",8.082,3.672,12.934,4.7],[3,"2026-11-09",8.834,3.637,14.703,6.0],[4,"2026-11-16",13.17,5.077,22.72,6.2],[5,"2026-11-23",14.2,5.68,24.71,8.6],[6,"2026-11-30",14.922,6.048,25.912,13.7],[7,"2026-12-07",15.326,6.006,28.004,14.05],[8,"2026-12-14",15.428,5.865,26.424,15.8]],"latest":5.8,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 07 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-07"},"London":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",7.976,4.122,12.916,6.2],[2,"2026-11-02",8.946,4.092,14.287,8.9],[3,"2026-11-09",9.905,4.112,16.447,8.5],[4,"2026-11-16",15.064,5.849,25.937,9.1],[5,"2026-11-23",16.537,6.663,28.717,12.2],[6,"2026-11-30",17.654,7.208,30.592,18.7],[7,"2026-12-07",18.38,7.261,33.506,17.4],[8,"2026-12-14",18.717,7.179,31.982,19.2]],"latest":6.5,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 14 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-14"},"North East":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",6.435,3.282,10.478,7.1],[2,"2026-11-02",7.444,3.362,11.936,10.8],[3,"2026-11-09",8.4,3.445,13.996,11.4],[4,"2026-11-16",14.03,5.428,24.182,11.2],[5,"2026-11-23",15.256,6.124,26.52,14.3],[6,"2026-11-30",16.02,6.514,27.792,21.2],[7,"2026-12-07",16.322,6.415,29.799,25.3],[8,"2026-12-14",16.209,6.177,27.744,25.2]],"latest":4.4,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 07 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-07"},"North West":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",10.271,5.374,16.549,16.0],[2,"2026-11-02",11.204,5.189,17.822,18.4],[3,"2026-11-09",12.077,5.075,19.984,17.7],[4,"2026-11-16",16.98,6.631,29.192,16.2],[5,"2026-11-23",18.218,7.37,31.6,18.5],[6,"2026-11-30",19.127,7.833,33.115,24.8],[7,"2026-12-07",19.694,7.802,35.873,21.35],[8,"2026-12-14",19.929,7.663,34.031,22.0]],"latest":8.7,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 14 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-14"},"South East":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",6.953,3.565,11.298,4.9],[2,"2026-11-02",7.446,3.362,11.938,4.6],[3,"2026-11-09",7.888,3.218,13.162,4.4],[4,"2026-11-16",11.126,4.243,19.249,5.6],[5,"2026-11-23",11.72,4.638,20.457,7.4],[6,"2026-11-30",12.147,4.87,21.16,15.2],[7,"2026-12-07",12.406,4.806,22.746,17.4],[8,"2026-12-14",12.504,4.696,21.481,22.8]],"latest":5.4,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 14 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-14"},"South West":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",9.549,4.98,15.407,6.0],[2,"2026-11-02",10.326,4.762,16.447,7.9],[3,"2026-11-09",11.035,4.613,18.288,8.1],[4,"2026-11-16",15.475,6.017,26.637,9.2],[5,"2026-11-23",16.413,6.611,28.504,10.7],[6,"2026-11-30",17.056,6.954,29.568,15.7],[7,"2026-12-07",17.403,6.86,31.747,17.65],[8,"2026-12-14",17.472,6.681,29.878,20.55]],"latest":7.8,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 07 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-07"},"West Midlands":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",7.703,3.974,12.485,11.4],[2,"2026-11-02",8.1,3.68,12.962,15.0],[3,"2026-11-09",8.424,3.455,14.034,11.8],[4,"2026-11-16",11.33,4.326,19.596,12.7],[5,"2026-11-23",11.645,4.606,20.327,14.6],[6,"2026-11-30",11.794,4.72,20.555,22.5],[7,"2026-12-07",11.791,4.553,21.637,23.5],[8,"2026-12-14",11.652,4.356,20.04,23.4]],"latest":6.0,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 30 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-30"},"Yorkshire and Humber":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",7.599,3.917,12.321,10.6],[2,"2026-11-02",8.372,3.812,13.388,13.9],[3,"2026-11-09",9.098,3.754,15.132,13.5],[4,"2026-11-16",13.164,5.074,22.71,11.6],[5,"2026-11-23",14.182,5.673,24.677,13.3],[6,"2026-11-30",14.912,6.043,25.894,20.8],[7,"2026-12-07",15.342,6.013,28.035,21.2],[8,"2026-12-14",15.486,5.888,26.522,22.4]],"latest":6.3,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 14 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-14"}},"flu_dm":{"London":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",19.452,10.381,31.083,1.252],[2,"2026-11-02",17.854,8.422,28.231,3.312],[3,"2026-11-09",16.622,7.089,27.388,5.143],[4,"2026-11-16",4.135,1.391,7.373,4.768],[5,"2026-11-23",2.844,0.906,5.235,7.688],[6,"2026-11-30",1.942,0.537,3.683,15.018],[7,"2026-12-07",1.32,0.248,2.777,12.265],[8,"2026-12-14",0.894,0.057,1.856,17.462]],"latest":27.3,"status":"peak timing uncertain (curve says past, data not yet falling)","peak_week":"2026-09-28"},"Midlands and East of England":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",7.048,3.616,11.447,3.852],[2,"2026-11-02",7.905,3.586,12.657,5.034],[3,"2026-11-09",8.755,3.602,14.574,5.401],[4,"2026-11-16",13.494,5.209,23.27,6.509],[5,"2026-11-23",14.876,5.964,25.868,7.302],[6,"2026-11-30",15.994,6.503,27.748,11.023],[7,"2026-12-07",16.811,6.617,30.68,12.983],[8,"2026-12-14",17.317,6.619,29.617,16.473]],"latest":5.6,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 21 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-21"},"North of England":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",4.769,2.374,7.84,5.442],[2,"2026-11-02",5.05,2.198,8.187,5.971],[3,"2026-11-09",5.294,2.068,8.938,6.708],[4,"2026-11-16",7.795,2.884,13.59,9.851],[5,"2026-11-23",8.11,3.12,14.265,12.656],[6,"2026-11-30",8.331,3.249,14.624,14.257],[7,"2026-12-07",8.459,3.183,15.637,17.97],[8,"2026-12-14",8.499,3.096,14.712,17.956]],"latest":3.2,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 14 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-14"},"South of England":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",9.402,4.9,15.173,3.113],[2,"2026-11-02",11.601,5.382,18.443,3.544],[3,"2026-11-09",13.338,5.634,22.038,4.566],[4,"2026-11-16",20.891,8.227,35.835,4.905],[5,"2026-11-23",20.61,8.375,35.701,5.721],[6,"2026-11-30",18.953,7.759,32.816,8.031],[7,"2026-12-07",16.572,6.518,30.249,10.779],[8,"2026-12-14",13.996,5.292,24.004,14.652]],"latest":7.4,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 16 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-16"}},"rsv_dm":{"London":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",0.044,0.0,0.361,6.672],[2,"2026-11-02",0.181,0.0,0.565,6.367],[3,"2026-11-09",0.82,0.085,1.649,7.545],[4,"2026-11-16",4.919,1.711,8.704,9.422],[5,"2026-11-23",10.193,3.996,17.837,14.422],[6,"2026-11-30",15.975,6.495,27.716,12.098],[7,"2026-12-07",20.384,8.085,37.115,12.715],[8,"2026-12-14",22.375,8.64,38.166,9.507]],"latest":0.0,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 14 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-14"},"Midlands and East of England":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",1.33,0.498,2.398,5.362],[2,"2026-11-02",2.612,1.013,4.371,6.937],[3,"2026-11-09",4.223,1.593,7.192,8.883],[4,"2026-11-16",10.747,4.088,18.605,10.812],[5,"2026-11-23",12.544,4.984,21.869,12.847],[6,"2026-11-30",13.001,5.232,22.623,14.144],[7,"2026-12-07",12.343,4.779,22.631,13.887],[8,"2026-12-14",10.982,4.088,18.908,11.921]],"latest":0.6,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 23 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-23"},"North of England":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",2.761,1.278,4.661,6.931],[2,"2026-11-02",2.653,1.033,4.436,9.305],[3,"2026-11-09",2.529,0.843,4.434,11.859],[4,"2026-11-16",1.706,0.4,3.248,13.093],[5,"2026-11-23",1.469,0.328,2.876,12.692],[6,"2026-11-30",1.256,0.246,2.508,12.997],[7,"2026-12-07",1.073,0.147,2.333,10.889],[8,"2026-12-14",0.919,0.067,1.898,10.302]],"latest":3.1,"status":"at or near peak now","peak_week":"2026-10-12"},"South of England":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",3.004,1.411,5.046,9.548],[2,"2026-11-02",4.833,2.092,7.847,10.572],[3,"2026-11-09",6.727,2.704,11.272,12.719],[4,"2026-11-16",14.747,5.72,25.399,15.117],[5,"2026-11-23",16.176,6.511,28.097,16.91],[6,"2026-11-30",16.141,6.566,28.001,17.507],[7,"2026-12-07",15.005,5.874,27.426,17.642],[8,"2026-12-14",13.226,4.985,22.702,13.425]],"latest":1.6,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 23 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-23"}},"flu_pos":{"England":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",7.834,4.045,12.692,4.148],[2,"2026-11-02",8.461,3.856,13.527,4.903],[3,"2026-11-09",9.051,3.733,15.055,5.555],[4,"2026-11-16",12.819,4.934,22.125,6.078],[5,"2026-11-23",13.718,5.477,23.882,8.353],[6,"2026-11-30",14.432,5.84,25.072,11.047],[7,"2026-12-07",14.949,5.851,27.325,15.052],[8,"2026-12-14",15.267,5.8,26.152,17.325]],"latest":6.34,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 21 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-21"}},"rsv_pos":{"England":{"origin":"2026-10-19","fc":[[1,"2026-10-26",2.497,1.134,4.244,7.103],[2,"2026-11-02",3.955,1.665,6.473,8.762],[3,"2026-11-09",5.594,2.201,9.426,10.667],[4,"2026-11-16",12.522,4.813,21.62,13.14],[5,"2026-11-23",14.23,5.693,24.76,14.648],[6,"2026-11-30",14.695,5.951,25.523,15.22],[7,"2026-12-07",14.11,5.506,25.815,14.078],[8,"2026-12-14",12.824,4.824,22.022,12.215]],"latest":1.46,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 30 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-30"}},"flu_adm":{"East Midlands":{"origin":"2026-10-12","fc":[[1,"2026-10-19",3.229,2.187,4.794,2.478],[2,"2026-10-26",3.811,2.193,6.857,2.63],[3,"2026-11-02",4.319,2.075,9.061,2.605],[4,"2026-11-09",7.146,3.38,16.091,2.42],[5,"2026-11-16",7.627,3.473,20.141,3.407],[6,"2026-11-23",7.812,3.117,20.381,3.588],[7,"2026-11-30",7.732,2.517,21.688,4.393],[8,"2026-12-07",7.436,2.069,18.257,6.253]],"latest":2.27,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 23 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-23"},"East of England":{"origin":"2026-10-05","fc":[[1,"2026-10-12",1.422,0.885,2.229,0.92],[2,"2026-10-19",1.422,0.701,2.78,0.748],[3,"2026-10-26",1.422,0.527,3.313,0.717],[4,"2026-11-02",0.905,0.213,2.548,0.827],[5,"2026-11-09",0.907,0.188,3.074,0.85],[6,"2026-11-16",0.958,0.134,3.163,0.915],[7,"2026-11-23",1.31,0.163,4.379,1.482],[8,"2026-11-30",2.444,0.453,6.458,2.917]],"latest":1.94,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 28 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-28"},"London":{"origin":"2026-10-12","fc":[[1,"2026-10-19",4.181,2.873,6.145,1.178],[2,"2026-10-26",5.293,3.119,9.387,1.53],[3,"2026-11-02",6.466,3.222,13.321,2.458],[4,"2026-11-09",11.724,5.702,26.025,2.09],[5,"2026-11-16",13.24,6.216,34.396,2.203],[6,"2026-11-23",14.056,5.833,36.066,3.475],[7,"2026-11-30",14.185,4.882,39.084,5.903],[8,"2026-12-07",13.743,4.11,33.163,8.625]],"latest":3.29,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 23 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-23"},"North East":{"origin":"2026-10-12","fc":[[1,"2026-10-19",1.923,1.246,2.94,0.76],[2,"2026-10-26",1.923,1.014,3.636,0.932],[3,"2026-11-02",1.923,0.795,4.308,1.748],[4,"2026-11-09",1.488,0.509,3.815,2.185],[5,"2026-11-16",1.726,0.588,5.153,2.34],[6,"2026-11-23",3.052,1.046,8.424,4.053],[7,"2026-11-30",6.225,1.965,17.627,6.742],[8,"2026-12-07",10.206,2.965,24.805,9.938]],"latest":2.37,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 14 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-14"},"North West":{"origin":"2026-10-12","fc":[[1,"2026-10-19",1.702,1.087,2.627,1.143],[2,"2026-10-26",2.625,1.452,4.833,1.5],[3,"2026-11-02",3.708,1.748,7.847,2.107],[4,"2026-11-09",8.336,3.983,18.673,2.495],[5,"2026-11-16",9.884,4.576,25.872,2.587],[6,"2026-11-23",10.729,4.386,27.709,3.045],[7,"2026-11-30",10.866,3.666,30.138,4.853],[8,"2026-12-07",10.421,3.035,25.313,7.365]],"latest":1.13,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 23 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-23"},"South East":{"origin":"2026-10-12","fc":[[1,"2026-10-19",2.035,1.326,3.099,0.377],[2,"2026-10-26",2.035,1.083,3.826,0.605],[3,"2026-11-02",2.035,0.854,4.529,0.588],[4,"2026-11-09",1.308,0.417,3.423,0.825],[5,"2026-11-16",1.31,0.385,4.098,0.88],[6,"2026-11-23",1.418,0.334,4.317,1.16],[7,"2026-11-30",2.425,0.572,7.384,3.473],[8,"2026-12-07",5.607,1.477,13.935,4.743]],"latest":2.76,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 21 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-21"},"South West":{"origin":"2026-10-12","fc":[[1,"2026-10-19",0.789,0.429,1.33,0.333],[2,"2026-10-26",0.789,0.305,1.699,0.335],[3,"2026-11-02",0.789,0.189,2.057,0.693],[4,"2026-11-09",0.713,0.116,2.132,0.695],[5,"2026-11-16",0.713,0.093,2.581,1.13],[6,"2026-11-23",0.714,0.028,2.549,1.855],[7,"2026-11-30",0.776,0.0,2.938,3.188],[8,"2026-12-07",1.745,0.227,4.807,5.76]],"latest":0.86,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 28 Dec","peak_week":"2026-12-28"},"West Midlands":{"origin":"2026-10-05","fc":[[1,"2026-10-12",6.897,4.83,10.001,null],[2,"2026-10-19",7.151,4.28,12.558,null],[3,"2026-10-26",7.047,3.532,14.473,null],[4,"2026-11-02",7.346,3.481,16.525,0.0],[5,"2026-11-09",6.378,2.862,16.969,0.0],[6,"2026-11-16",5.341,2.042,14.173,null],[7,"2026-11-23",4.357,1.28,12.592,null],[8,"2026-11-30",3.489,0.791,8.928,null]],"latest":6.04,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 19 Oct","peak_week":"2026-10-19"},"Yorkshire and Humber":{"origin":"2026-10-12","fc":[[1,"2026-10-19",2.221,1.46,3.362,1.325],[2,"2026-10-26",3.01,1.693,5.49,2.062],[3,"2026-11-02",3.873,1.836,8.176,2.133],[4,"2026-11-09",7.82,3.721,17.553,1.968],[5,"2026-11-16",9.015,4.151,23.666,1.935],[6,"2026-11-23",9.701,3.939,25.125,2.098],[7,"2026-11-30",9.87,3.301,27.452,4.23],[8,"2026-12-07",9.599,2.769,23.37,6.928]],"latest":1.51,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 23 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-23"},"England":{"origin":"2026-10-12","fc":[[1,"2026-10-19",2.658,1.775,3.983,0.747],[2,"2026-10-26",3.204,1.814,5.821,0.992],[3,"2026-11-02",3.746,1.769,7.924,1.282],[4,"2026-11-09",6.39,2.996,14.45,1.382],[5,"2026-11-16",7.09,3.21,18.776,1.553],[6,"2026-11-23",7.501,2.981,19.6,2.228],[7,"2026-11-30",7.625,2.478,21.402,3.695],[8,"2026-12-07",7.499,2.089,18.405,5.435]],"latest":2.04,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 30 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-30"}},"rsv_adm":{"England":{"origin":"2026-10-12","fc":[[1,"2026-10-19",0.559,0.263,1.003,0.958],[2,"2026-10-26",0.835,0.334,1.778,1.11],[3,"2026-11-02",1.15,0.382,2.774,1.66],[4,"2026-11-09",2.536,1.04,6.087,1.897],[5,"2026-11-16",2.969,1.196,8.31,2.42],[6,"2026-11-23",3.199,1.11,8.793,3.008],[7,"2026-11-30",3.229,0.867,9.552,3.478],[8,"2026-12-07",3.095,0.664,7.996,3.045]],"latest":0.35,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 23 Nov","peak_week":"2026-11-23"}},"noro":{"England":{"origin":"2026-10-12","fc":[[1,"2026-10-19",86.519,34.547,172.804,125.0],[2,"2026-10-26",87.695,29.39,172.233,119.6],[3,"2026-11-02",89.904,26.179,187.417,143.2],[4,"2026-11-09",110.216,28.35,244.614,166.4],[5,"2026-11-16",121.439,32.741,273.34,179.2],[6,"2026-11-23",136.966,37.53,307.6,213.8],[7,"2026-11-30",156.767,40.952,379.658,246.6],[8,"2026-12-07",180.219,45.147,396.654,243.4]],"latest":77.0,"status":"rising; curve peak expected w/c 08 Feb","peak_week":"2027-02-08"}}},"local":{"London":[["Greenwich",0.87,2.06,false],["Lewisham",0.87,2.1,false],["Bexley",0.85,2.68,false],["Lambeth",0.84,2.27,false],["Bromley",0.83,2.49,false]],"South West":[["North Somerset",0.88,3.15,false],["Somerset",0.88,3.3,false],["Cornwall",0.86,3.11,false],["Devon",0.86,3.19,false],["Wiltshire",0.86,2.69,false]],"East of England":[["Suffolk",0.89,3.01,false],["Thurrock",0.87,2.13,false],["Central Bedfordshire",0.85,2.84,false],["Essex",0.85,2.7,false],["Southend-on-Sea",0.85,2.8,false]],"West Midlands":[["Stoke-on-Trent",0.9,2.69,false],["Walsall",0.84,2.29,false],["Shropshire",0.83,3.06,false],["Wolverhampton",0.83,2.17,false],["Worcestershire",0.83,3.11,false]],"North West":[["Tameside",0.9,2.23,false],["Blackpool",0.89,2.07,false],["Knowsley",0.89,2.3,false],["Rochdale",0.89,2.35,false],["Salford",0.88,2.52,false]],"South East":[["Portsmouth",0.88,2.68,false],["Bracknell Forest",0.87,2.84,false],["Medway",0.87,2.63,false],["Southampton",0.86,2.94,false],["East Sussex",0.85,3.09,false]],"North East":[["Sunderland",0.86,2.53,false],["Newcastle upon Tyne",0.84,2.21,false],["Middlesbrough",0.83,2.13,false],["Redcar and Cleveland",0.83,2.52,false],["Northumberland",0.82,2.5,false]],"East Midlands":[["Rutland",0.86,2.74,false],["Nottingham",0.84,2.11,false],["Derbyshire",0.82,2.6,false],["West Northamptonshire",0.81,2.7,false],["Derby",0.8,2.62,false]]},"attribution":"Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Sources: UKHSA; Department for Education."}